Joe Biden seems to be enjoying himself this summer.
The first-term president has traveled the globe and presided over unprecedented European unity. With opposition to Sweden’s bid to join NATO gone, the continent is collectively committed to rolling back Vladimir Putin’s reckless invasion of Ukraine.
The war will be long — Russian troops are dug-in — but it’s Putin who’s fighting for his political life, and he knows it.
That description might also characterize Biden’s presumed opponent, the former president who’s facing multiple federal charges, and likely will soon confront the Big One.
A new slate of indictments focusing on Donald Trump’s endless attempts to overturn the 2020 election appears imminent. Those actions culminated in the violence of Jan. 6, for which numerous defendants have been convicted.
Yet, it’s difficult to recall an election cycle in which the press — if the term still applies — was less enthusiastic about the incumbent’s chances.
In May, the Boston Globe opined, as if stating a fact, that “Joe Biden is the weakest incumbent running for president in decades.”
The “decades” qualifier sends one searching for comparisons, especially the relatively rare occasions in the term limit era when a president failed to be reelected.
Weaker than Jimmy Carter? Than George H.W. Bush? Than — um — Trump himself?
Carter spent more time battling his own party in Congress than passing the domestic legislation that has, since Franklin Roosevelt, been the hallmark of successful Democratic presidents.
Bush broke his one major campaign pledge — “Read my lips. No new taxes” — and was demonized by the Republican right wing, a faction that’s grown ever since.
Trump, it’s fair to say, might have been reelected except that he absented himself the coronavirus pandemic, leaving everything to governors and states.
When he learned vaccines wouldn’t be ready until after the election, he lost all interest, and wouldn’t even coordinate with the incoming administration. The loss of more than a million Americans, including many preventable deaths, has a collective effect on voters.
Since Trump was anti-NATO, Biden has benefited on the world stage. His casual utterances about Taiwan or China’s dictator — er, president — are analyzed and tut-tutted over as if he, alone, made foreign policy. Barack Obama might have been more admired, but Biden is undeniably more effective.
And domestic affairs? Fairly or not, incumbents are judged on the state of the economy at election time.
Recessions helped fell Carter and Bush, and — lest we forget — Ronald Reagan was trailing Walter Mondale in 1983 before the economy came roaring back and it was “morning in America.”
Biden won’t need any similar reversal. The U.S. has emerged from the intense but brief recession caused by the pandemic shutdown in better shape than any other major economy.
Inflation caused by post-pandemic demand did soar, but it’s now down on an annualized basis to 3%. The Federal Reserve’s cure — raising its funds rate from near zero to 5.25% — worked with textbook-like precision.
More startling still, unemployment remains below 4%, the Fed’s “full employment” target which in years past meant substantial inflationary pressures.
Even economists who’ve steadily predicted a recession for two years have thrown in the towel and conceded a “soft landing” is exactly what we’re seeing.
In 2022, we were told “history” would determine the Congressional midterm elections, with the president’s party losing seats.
Instead, Democrats picked up a Senate seat conferring an actual majority, and Republican gains giving them a narrow House majority can be partially attributed to racially gerrymandered maps now overturned, 6-3, by the U.S. Supreme Court.
Somehow, history never comes up in reelection campaigns, but the last five successful incumbents made net gains in Congress, though generally smaller than the first time around. Instead, pundits decree that the only “vulnerable” Senate seats are those held by Democrats.
Why then is Biden so unregarded, so minimized, so read out of the political conversation?
There are obvious reasons, including his age, modest speaking abilities and his off-script remarks that are, however, usually distinguished by a truth, however inconvenient.
In the last month Biden spent $1.1 million, a figure so low it left money merchants who believe they run campaigns, not the candidate, gasping for air.
Much can happen in a year, but the answer to “if the election were held today” would be obvious, except for partisan divisions we assume rather than question.
Biden’s historical role, like that of all presidents, won’t become clear for years. But managing a pandemic, uniting the world’s democracies, and helping create sustained and responsible economic growth would be major steps toward a positive accounting.
He does have reason to smile.
Douglas Rooks has been a Maine editor, columnist and reporter since 1984. His new book, “Calm Command: U.S. Chief Justice Melville Fuller in His Times, 1888-1910, will be published later this year. He welcomes comment at drooks@tds.net
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