On a beach somewhere warm, sipping from an umbrella-covered fruity cocktail, is where we like to picture Dave Dombrowski this October.
He’ll open the newspaper and check the playoff box scores. He’ll read the postgame comments from the players and managers. And maybe, despite being out of a job and ostracized from the Red Sox front office, he’ll smile.
From a pure strategy standpoint, he had it right.
His old school thinking favors a top-heavy roster that spends a majority of its resources on the starting rotation. The back end of the roster suffers (and the good teams have proven to not skimp in that area). The bullpen is almost always too thin.
This year, the Sox entered the season without a single reliever making more than $1.75 million. That salary belonged to Tyler Thornburg, who was released mid-season.
But as the Nationals and Astros powered their way to this year’s World Series behind the two best starting rotations in baseball, there’s little doubt that the strategy still works.
Look what happened to the Yankees.
When Aaron Boone made history by removing Masahiro Tanaka with a shutout intact in Game 1 of the American League Championship Series (he was the first starter ever to be removed without allowing a run while throwing fewer than 70 pitches over at least six innings in the postseason), baseball minds exploded everywhere across the country. Tanaka was dealing. His magical split-finger was dropping out of the zone and the Astros looked clueless. Anybody could see that.
But Boone went to his team’s strength. The Yankees spent more than $150 million assembling their bullpen and largely ignored questions in the rotation.
Despite the clear need for another starter in July, they stood still when Trevor Bauer (Reds), Zack Greinke (Astros), Marcus Stroman (Mets), Tanner Roark (A’s), Aaron Sanchez (Astros) were traded to other teams.
For Boone, going to his bullpen early in Game 1 worked for that game, but it set up the Yankees for failure the rest of the series. By overexposing their dominant bullpen arms early, it allowed the Astros to become familiar. It was fitting that Aroldis Chapman ended the series by allowing a walkoff homer to Jose Altuve.
“The more times you face guys as relievers, you get overexposed,” reliever Zack Britton told reporters afterward. “That’s what I always say, that’s why we’re relievers and not starters. You can overexpose guys. It’s inevitable.”
The Yankees were by far the superior regular season team in the AL East, but it sure looks like being all-in on the bullpen is a strategy best served in the regular season.
Teams like the Red Sox and Nationals have continued to skimp on the bullpen while loading up in the rotation.
The Astros have both, but they bolster a rotation that gets better each season. In the last three years, they’ve acquired three aces: Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole and Zack Greinke.
The Nationals spent big to sign Patrick Corbin (six years, $140 million) last offseason, found a gem in Anibal Sanchez and have continued to rely on Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg.
It’s no surprise then that the two teams with the highest quality start percentages during the regular season are the two final teams standing. The Astros led with 55 percent of their starts resulting in at least six innings and three earned runs or fewer, and the Nationals were second at 54 percent.
“You watch the Nationals that are in the World Series, and these guys, obviously, with their rotation – starters is still the way to go,” Britton told reporters. “If you have a great bullpen, that only helps you. But having four to five guys in the rotation that give you innings is still the formula to win. We came really close with our formula.”
The Red Sox are watching from the couch in October not because of a faulty bullpen, but because their rotation couldn’t withstand the long October a year ago and suffered impactful injuries to Chris Sale, Nathan Eovaldi and David Price. Rick Porcello had his worst career year while Eduardo Rodriguez shined.
The outlook is murky in 2020, with Sale recovering from shoulder and elbow injuries, Price trying to get over carpal tunnel-related issues and Eovaldi continuing his career trend of being physically unreliable.
There’s a lot of work to do to get those guys healthy and figure out how to add one more quality starter this winter.
But this October proves it: The Sox were on the right track by going big in the rotation.
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