It could be, that like Hurricane Gustav in New Orleans, the crisis facing Mainers paying for heat this winter will not be as severe as feared.

A winter mild enough to keep demand for heating oil prices in check yet robust enough to keep ski resorts and businesses serving snowmobilers busy is great for the economy.

But, as series of stories that start on Page 1 this week make clear, optimism about the season is hard to come by and fear about the effects of high oil and energy prices is palpable.

In that regard, the state and its citizens should take note of the preparations made for Hurricane Gustav even as they were not fully needed.

Massive evacuations to Cancun or Aruba from November to April are not called for, but ensuring the financial resources for anyone needing help to stay warm this winter is.

Paying for fuel this winter may already seem less dire because the average price for a gallon of heating oil in Maine fell below $4 Tuesday after peaking at $4.60 June 23, according to MaineEnergyInfo.com.

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Good news, but news tempered by the same source showing the price is $1.50 more than it was on Oct. 1, 2006.

At the same time, the money available to recipients through the federal Low Income Home Energy Assistance Program, which 20 percent of Mainers are eligible to receive, would be $250 less than it was at the end of last winter even if the federal government doubles the $19 million it was expected to spend on the program.

The state scraped together $6.75 million for energy assistance, home weatherization and furnace maintenance last week. That would be reassuring were it not for wondering how the $50 million spent for a failed computer program for processing Medicaid claims would help now.

Perhaps some of the $20 million recouped from Merrill Lynch for a bad state investment in a mortgage-backed fund can find its way to helping keep people warm. Like precautionary evacuations in Louisiana, the extra money is a smarter hedge than the fund Merrill Lynch recommended to Maine Treasurer Dan Lemoine.

There is no lack of local enthusiasm for raising money to help. In Denmark, Rep. Ralph Sarty, R-Denmark, and his son Jonathan organized a benefit concert. The Homefires festival is scheduled at Thompson’s Orchards in New Gloucester Saturday. A benefit walk-a-thon organized by the Neighbors Helping Neighbors Network in Windham is scheduled for Sept. 27.

Ultimately, it would be better to see state money spent helping develop tidal, wind or solar energy created locally that would help residents bear the shock of the oil market, where 86 million barrels are consumed globally each day.

For now, the state should ensure that money to help people stay warm is available as our Congressional delegation seeks increased federal aid. Preparing for the worst now will cost less than dealing with it later.

David Harry, editor