Old Man Winter has largely been missing in action lately, but that’s about to change. Typically, I wouldn’t give much airtime to weather computer modeling about a week away from a storm, but the pattern favors a big snowstorm this time around. We need cold air, energy to get together at the right time and plenty of moisture for a big snowstorm. Let’s discuss the details.
There are two days I’m watching for waves of energy riding along the jet stream: Jan. 7 and Jan. 10. At this time, high pressure would be in the correct position for an all-snow solution across the state on Jan. 7.
Any movement of the high-pressure system would disrupt the cold air needed for a big snowstorm, especially along the coastline. This is a delicate situation as these will not be classic nor’easter storm tracks. Either storm could go inland and bring warmer air off the Gulf of Maine. It’s still more than likely the mountains get elevation-dependent snow from both systems, even if one or both become inland runners.
For the 10th, I can see a more powerful storm with more moisture coming out of the Gulf of Mexico, but we still need a strong area of high pressure and North Atlantic blocking to keep the cold air locked in place. It remains to be seen if that will be the case, but I’m leaning toward that being a big obstacle for storm No. 2.
You will notice that storm No. 2 has plenty of moisture to work with, and it could easily be the bigger of the two storms in the back-to-back scenario playing out on computer modeling.
There is plenty of upper-atmosphere energy – proverbial steroid shots – going into both storms.
Right now, northern New England is lacking in the snow depth department, but that will change in the next 10 days if all the ingredients mentioned above come together at the right time.
I won’t put numbers on the snow forecast map as this time, but I’m confident that winter sports will be in full swing come mid-January. We have a long way to go before Old Man Winter leaves town for a while.
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