President Biden has given assurances the U.S. will support Ukraine “for as long as it takes” so that progress on the battlefield will allow Kyiv to start negotiations with Russia from a position of strength.
Kyiv, however, has pledged to liberate all Ukrainian lands lost over the last decade, rejecting any territorial compromise. The 2023 Ukrainian counter-offensive made little progress and the war has become a stalemate. It appears increasingly likely this is now a war of attrition. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken has ruled out negotiations with Moscow without the Ukrainians at the table, aware that Putin would like to drive a wedge between Kyiv and its supporters in the West.
By all indications Russia is planning for a long war in Ukraine. Its 2024 defense budget will increase more than one third, and will equal 6% of GDP. (U.S. defense spending in 2023 amounted to 3.1% of GDP.) Russia’s economy is being put on a war-footing in a way that has not been seen since WWII and it has the money to do it, having succeeded in circumventing international sanctions.
Secretary of State Blinken has argued the world order is at stake if Russia conquers another state by force of arms. In his Dec. 6 appeal to Congress to fund Ukraine assistance, President Biden said Putin won’t stop with Ukraine if he wins there, and that it is “vital for America’s national security” that Ukraine win the war.
But vital national security interests are commonly understood to be those over which a state is prepared to go to war; by contrast, the U.S. hasn’t been willing even to provide Ukraine with long-range missiles or aircraft critically needed by Ukrainian forces. All this highlights a disconnect between America’s stated interests and its strategic means for pursuing them.
In this misalignment between high stakes, unclear strategy and stalemate on the battlefield, it isn’t a surprise that Congress and the American public are uncertain about the path forward.
According to a recent Pew Research survey, about half of Americans believe the U.S. is providing enough support to Ukraine or that it should be greater, while nearly one third thought too much assistance was being provided. Equally important, public disapproval of the Biden administration’s handling of Russia’s invasion (41%) now surpasses approval (39%).
At the same time, U.S. support for Ukraine has become a partisan issue. In May 2022, only 8% of Democrats and 17% of Republicans said U.S. support for Ukraine was excessive. Today, 48% of Republicans, or those leaning Republican, view U.S. support of Ukraine as excessive. Skepticism has even grown nearly a quarter of Democratic voters. To sustain congressional support for Ukraine, the administration needs to do a better job in making its case to the American public; Ukraine is now at an inflection point. Absent a bipartisan compromise, there will be a humanitarian disaster in Ukraine.
Failure to support Ukraine will strike a mortal blow to Ukraine’s military capability to defend itself, damage America’s credibility and give encouragement to other adversaries, not least China. Putin has been playing a waiting game in the expectation Western resolve will wane. Unless Washington proves him wrong, it will be a merry Christmas season in the Kremlin.
Send questions/comments to the editors.
