Here is the conventional wisdom for 2024.
Joe Biden and Donald Trump will face off as their party’s nominees for the presidency. The main issue in the campaign will be Trump himself. The nominees will be selected soon, making most of the year a two-person political war. Unless a realistic third-party spoiler pops up.
Trump will try to vindicate his claim that he really won in 2020, fend off negative outcomes in his court cases, and gear up a more authoritarian form of government. Biden will try to save democracy from Trump and to shift the focus to his opponent and away from his aging self.
The election will be about the people running far more than their policies, good or bad, or their proposals. The outcome will be close because the electoral vote favors Trump over Biden.
We can count on this. The polls say so.
As the old song goes, “It ain’t necessarily so.” As plausible alternatives, here are some unconventional thoughts, if not wisdom.
For the Republicans, the campaign is likely to be a last ditch battle for the remains of the party. The party machinery has been taken over by Trump, and his backers use it to maintain tight control and defeat traditional Republicans. We see a divided House GOP delegation that is reluctant to oppose Trump.
For the GOP traditionalists, the fight may be now or never. They will not form a third party, but will try to return their party to its usual, conservative and constitutional character. To do this, they need to get behind an alternative to Trump and that looks increasingly like former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley.
The problem for any Trump challenger is money. Usually, if candidates don’t fare well in early primaries, their backing dries up and they must drop out. But Haley has backing from the Koch political organization, among the wealthiest in the country. She could hold on past early weak primary finishes. Then the momentum could shift.
Meanwhile, former GOP Rep. Liz Cheney will be trying to elect a Democratic House. Yes, true. If the presidential race is close, it could be tossed to Congress, as Trump tried to do last time. Under Democratic control, he could be blocked. When a conservative like Cheney will go this far, it’s clear the war for the GOP is on.
Add to that the impact of any court decisions adverse to Trump. So far, there’s no sign that his standing has been hurt by charges against him. But verdicts and their cumulative effect are still ahead, to say nothing of Trump’s intemperate reactions.
Biden has suggested he might not be running if it were not for Trump. Were Haley to succeed in having a real chance at the nomination, she could undercut both Trump and Biden. Not only would Biden no longer need to stay in the race, but he might poll even less well against Haley than against Trump.
Democrats back Biden because they ardently oppose Trump and believe that their incumbent president has the best chance of a repeat win. But, if the GOP leans toward a younger candidate and a woman, the need for Biden might melt. Haley’s progress could suggest that a younger Democrat who is a woman would be a better option.
Democrats like most others see Biden as being too old. Minnesota Rep. Dean Phillips is challenging him in early primaries because he thinks Biden is too old to win. He could garner votes from Democrats who agree. He could not win the nomination, but he could open the way to contested primaries.
In that case, Vice President Kamala Harris would likely face competition, though nobody wants to undermine the Biden-Harris ticket now. One serious possibility could be Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, who rebuilt the Democrat coalition there even in the face of death threats.
The expected response to this thinking is that it’s already too late. The primaries will begin soon and Trump and Biden will quickly nail down their nominations. But that fails to understand what happens in primaries. Presidential candidates are not selected; convention delegates are elected.
If conventional wisdom turns out to be wrong, national political conventions could revert to selecting nominees not merely serving as political rallies. The nominees could be selected by elected state delegates in open votes. These political “Super Bowl” playoffs alone could help revive the American voter’s connection with the election process.
Of course, these alternate scenarios might well not happen. But it’s important to understand that the messages from polls and pundits we are now getting may also not happen. This campaign is for high stakes and is only based on the character of two old men.
Wisdom suggests there are some major political surprises ahead and they won’t be conventional.
Gordon L. Weil formerly wrote for the Washington Post and other newspapers, served on the U.S. Senate and EU staffs, headed Maine state agencies and was a Harpswell selectman.
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