We are still several days away from any direct threat to Maine from Hurricane Lee. However, all scenarios are still on the table for the storm, so let’s discuss them so you can be prepared no matter what the eventual outcome is.
I spent years on the Gulf Coast, surviving many hurricanes, and I can tell you that a slight wobble or change to the storm track means a lot. Right now, I’m looking at a trough digging to the west and whether it will pull Lee north or miss it altogether. A few miles slower with the storm track, and we have a hurricane taking longer to get north and potentially missing the trough that scoops it up and kicks it west.
Lee has regained “major” status, as was expected, thanks to a more favorable environment in the Atlantic.
The latest official track from the National Hurricane Center shows Lee likely heading near or to the west of Bermuda. The storm will go down from a Category 4 to Category 1 by that time.
What I know is that a storm of this size coming down from a high-end category will expand in size and wind field. At the very least, we are nearly guaranteed to have high surf, long duration swells and life-threatening rip currents later this week and weekend.
What I don’t know is how close Lee will get to us yet. I can’t rule out direct impacts from wind and rain.
The latest scenarios (spaghetti model tracks) show a trend to the west with a slower storm. If this trend continues, a landfall to the East Coast becomes more likely. It looks like Lee will miss connecting with the trough to the west and north. The storm could get nudged west by a weak ridge to the east and slide in under the trough.
Regardless of the track, wave heights seem almost certain to be a major factor for the coastline Friday into the weekend.
If we see a landfalling hurricane or tropical storm, then the wind, waves and rain will be significant. It’s important to have a plan in place if watches or warnings are issued.
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