Red Sox Manager Alex Cora takes the ball from starting pitcher James Paxton during Saturday’s game against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Fenway Park. The Red Sox started the week 4 1/2 games behind Houston in the chase for the final wild-card berth in the American League. AP Photo/Michael Dwyer
For years I’ve used a self-made formula I like to call the Playoff Viability Quotient. Since I created it, the math is very simple. A team is still alive if there are more weeks remaining in a season than there are games back in the playoff race.
By that measure, the Red Sox are still alive in the American League wild-card race. Barely.
The Sox began the work week 4 1/2 games out in the race. There are five weeks left in the season. There is time to make up the ground, but that time is quickly dwindling.
The Red Sox made it through another week without any major moves in either direction. They went 3-4 against the Astros and Dodgers, two of the best teams in the game. Not a bad record, but not enough to help them close the gap between themselves and AL wild-card contenders.
That could happen this week as Houston comes to town for a rematch. It’s another important stretch for the Red Sox, a stretch that could make or break this season.
I’ve said that about once a week for the last month.
The nonstop ebb and flow of this season, the back-and-forth stretches of playoff-caliber baseball followed by losses marred by poor fundamentals, is what has made this team so difficult to analyze.
It was a spectacular weekend of baseball at Fenway with the Dodgers. There was a playoff atmosphere in the air with students returning to nearby colleges and the first touch of an autumn chill.
Mookie Betts played his first games in Boston since he was traded before the 2020 season. He admitted these games served as a bit of closure, but also stated bluntly that he had to separate his emotions from the business at hand.
“Obviously, the emotions are there,” said Betts on Sunday. “I let them come but I also let them go.”
His manager, 2004 Red Sox hero Dave Roberts, told me it’s been a joy to watch Betts embrace his superstardom on the West Coast. After Sunday’s game he told the media he marvels at the star’s ability to handle big moments.
“It’s remarkable how he was able to be accessible but not be overwhelmed as far as the people that he had to see and obligations and still focus on the job at hand,” Roberts said. “It’s not easy to do.”
It won’t be easy for the Red Sox to beat the odds and claim a postseason berth. Manager Alex Cora says his team can’t get stuck thinking about the big picture.
“Just keep going,” said Cora. “We know who we get. We just played them, so there’s not too many secrets. Just go out there and play good baseball.”
The Red Sox get another elite team. The Astros tuned up for Fenway with a 17-run attack against the Tigers on Sunday and are still looking to win the AL West. Knocking the Sox out this week would be a big step toward that end.
Chris Sale was scheduled to get the start Monday for the Sox, looking to set the tone and deliver in his biggest start of the year. The game at Fenway was one of 14 on the MLB schedule. That’s 28 starting pitchers needed for those games, and as of Monday morning 16 of them were listed as “TBA.”
The Red Sox weren’t one of them. They’ve come a long way since earlier this summer when they only had three healthy starters and had to go with “openers” 40% of the time.
Is there enough time for the Red Sox to make the long-awaited push to the playoffs? September is just a few days away. And the Sox are just a few losses from having their hopes dashed.
Tom Caron is a studio host for the Red Sox broadcast on NESN. His column appears in the Portland Press Herald on Tuesdays.
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