Ahead of the MLB trade deadline, it’s tough to figure out just what will happen in the endlessly intriguing American League East, in which every team is above .500.
The chaos may be best summed up by the following: the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox entered Tuesday, the start of the final week before the deadline, with identical records. The Yankees lost their Tuesday night game, and the Red Sox won theirs.
But by the end of the night, it was the Red Sox who had sold a piece of their roster to a contender and the Yankees who were still trying to talk themselves into believing a buyer’s mentality at the deadline could help them save their season.
Contending, this season, is in the eye of the beholder.
1. BALTIMORE ORIOLES
(First in the AL East)
With remarkable consistency given their youth, the Orioles have marched into the top spot in the AL East as the deadline nears. For the first time in the era of General Manager Mike Elias, they are in a position to buy and bolster their roster – and perhaps no team has as much prospect depth with which to deal. Exactly how much salary they are willing to add remains unclear; this is the first time in recent memory that John Angelos will have a reason to. But Baltimore’s needs are clear.
First of all, the Orioles have relied on a starting rotation full of young arms that will be pushing past their career highs in innings. That may work out just fine, but the Orioles probably need to acquire a veteran starter or two to ensure they have innings covered. And while they already traded for reliever Shintaro Fujinami to add to the back end of the bullpen, they will have to decide whether they trust their nasty but relatively inexperienced back-end combo of Yennier Cano and Félix Bautista to hold up in close games down the stretch and into October.
The big name who was being tossed around in connection with the Orioles was, unsurprisingly, Shohei Ohtani. But the Angels declared Wednesday that Ohtani won’t be traded, and then they bolstered their roster by acquiring pitchers Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo Lopez from the White Sox. There are still several free-agent-to-be pitchers who could be dealt, though, and with a four- or five-year window just beginning to open, Elias will need to decide if it’s worth trading top prospects for three months of a rental.
2. TAMPA BAY RAYS
(1.5 games back in AL East, in the first AL wild-card spot)
The seas parted for the Rays to begin the season, but after losing just six games in all of March and April, they have won only five in the first three weeks of July.
Few organizations have the starting pitching depth to match Tampa Bay’s, but it has been tested repeatedly this year, and the Rays enter the deadline probably needing a fourth or fifth starter to help eat innings. Their offense has struggled lately, largely because everyone but Yandy Díaz has slumped dramatically this month. If there is an obvious spot for an offensive upgrade, it is probably at catcher: Rays catchers entered Wednesday with a .531 OPS this month, third lowest in baseball.
Tampa Bay also has a knack for acquiring relievers and getting the most out of them, so names such as Scott Barlow and David Robertson could make sense at the right price, too.
3. TORONTO BLUE JAYS
(5.5 games back in AL East, in final AL wild-card spot)
The Blue Jays continue to loom as a potential AL East power but are not yet making a convincing case that they are built for October. Their general manager, Ross Atkins, indicated to reporters recently that they are fully in buy mode, but they do not necessarily have any glaring needs. For example, if they believe right-hander Kevin Gausman is healthy and righty Alek Manoah will rediscover his ace form down the stretch, they might not need to pay a high price for a starter. If they have doubts, they could use one.
And like almost any team, the Blue Jays could use some help in the back end of the bullpen – but they do not need to deal from a place of desperation, either. The same is true for their lineup. They could benefit from adding depth, but they do have the ninth-best OPS in the majors. If everyone stays healthy, which is never a safe bet, they could have enough to stay in the mix.
4. BOSTON RED SOX
(7.0 games back in AL East, 1.5 games out of final AL wild-card spot)
The Red Sox are having a better season than some expected from their mismatched roster, but they became the first AL East team to nod at selling when they traded versatile Kiké Hernández back to the Los Angeles Dodgers for two minor league pitchers. Chief Baseball Officer Chaim Bloom said Tuesday that the Red Sox are trying to make deals that will serve an emerging core of young players long term, suggesting the Hernández deal was not the start of a sell-off but more a deal reflective of Boston’s roster: Trevor Story is expected back from injury soon, and the Red Sox have plenty of infielders.
What they do need, if they intend to stay competitive through late summer, is pitching. They began this season with shaky rotation depth and saw it shrink because of injuries. They could use relief help, too. Bloom indicated to reporters that the Red Sox do not feel the need to give away future parts for short-term rentals, which means they probably won’t be as focused on impending free agents as some more established contenders. Like, perhaps, their rivals to the south.
5. NEW YORK YANKEES
(8.0 games back in AL East, 2.5 games out of final AL wild-card spot)
The Yankees are among the more fascinating teams to watch at the deadline. Since slugger Aaron Judge went down with a severe toe injury, their offense has been jarringly nonexistent. But Judge is playing rehab games, and Manager Aaron Boone wouldn’t rule out a return as soon as this weekend in Baltimore. Starting pitcher Nestor Cortes should be back from injury before August is out. Even last year’s failed deadline acquisition, Frankie Montas, could return soon and act as a de facto deadline acquisition. Left-hander Carlos Rodón is back from the injury that kept him out early in the season, and he should be settling in more with each start.
So if you squint, the Yankees might be well positioned to improve just based on who they get back from injury in the near future. But they cannot count on Judge returning to his usual MVP form, and even if they could, an offense that is entirely reliant on him is no recipe for success. The Yankees do have a history of making big league-for-big league deals such as the one that brought them Harrison Bader last year. Bader, Luis Severino and utilityman Isiah Kiner-Falefa are all free agents this winter, which perhaps would make them easier to part with to address other needs. But the Yankees have needs even with those players, and addition by subtraction is a tricky thing to predict.
In other words, the Yankees could use offensive help, starting depth and help in the bullpen – a strength for this roster entering the season but a group that has been worked to capacity this year and last. A few key acquisitions could change the complexion of an otherwise disappointing season entirely. A few big losses this week, however, could alter their willingness to part with prospects merely for the chance that they can march out of last place and deep into October.
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