The Democratic Party sits on the horns of a dilemma. While President Biden has not yet announced his reelection plans, he is already off and running.
He said so, during his recent State of the Union speech. Ten times, by my count. “Let’s finish the job,” he said. In case you missed the point, that means he has much more to do and wants another term to do it.
“Let’s finish the job” will soon be Biden’s 2024 campaign motto. Biden is in it to win.
Biden, 80, was relatively vital, energized and agile as he delivered the 73-minute speech. There were few of the stumbles and stutters his critics were waiting for. Biden ad-libbed. (That was not always welcome, given the speech was dreadfully long.) He poked fun at his Republican critics and, with a sly grin, declared he had converted them to promise to protect Medicare and Social Security.
Biden expertly delivered his case, bolstering worried Democrats. His party’s intelligentsia mopped their sweat-soaked brows in relief. The president is on his game, for now. And that will keep the others who would be president at bay.
In the run-up to 2024, there are hordes of prominent Democratic politicians who would love to run for the top job. When Biden finally solidifies his reelection plans, that scrum will be forced to beat a sullen retreat. Few Democrats of national stature would dare mount a primary challenge against their incumbent president.
In politics, you dance with the one who brought you. And then, you are stuck with your dance partner all night. Therein lies the dilemma. Biden could bring his party down.
On the one hand, many Democratic Party honchos, operatives and media hounds crave a reprise of the 2020 presidential matchup. Forget Muhammad Ali vs. Joe Frazier or Joe Louis vs. Max Schmeling. In 2024, Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden would be the rematch of all rematches.
In his speech, Biden touted an impressive legislative and policy record, giving his party bragging rights to a laundry list of accomplishments.
“That’s why we’re building an economy where no one is left behind,” Biden exhorted. “Jobs are coming back, pride is coming back, because of the choices we made in the last several years. You know, this is, in my view, a blue-collar blueprint to rebuild America and make a real difference in your lives at home.”
Trump is, after all, Trump. If the popularity polls are any indication, voters’ familiarity Trump has bred a ton of contempt. On the other hand, what if Trump is not the 2024 Republican nominee? There are no guarantees. At 76, Trump is also aging, but unlike Biden, he won’t get a free pass in his presidential primary.
Trump, one of two announced Republican presidential candidates, has mounted a lackluster campaign. He is struggling to raise campaign cash. Nikki Haley, 51, the former South Carolina governor and United Nations ambassador, has just declared her candidacy, and there are plenty of other younger and more moderate alternatives aiming to take Trump on. Just to name a few: Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis; former Vice President Mike Pence; Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin; Trump’s former secretary of state, Mike Pompeo; South Carolina U.S. Sen. Tim Scott, and former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson.
In a one-to-one matchup, any one of them could make Biden look like an out-of-touch, doddering octogenarian.
If Biden is reelected, he will be 86 by the time he leaves the White House. Biden got through that speech OK, but running the world in your late 80s is another matter.
Only 37% of Democrats say Biden should run for reelection, according to an Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research poll conducted in late January. That’s down from the 52% who gave the nod to a Biden second term in a similar poll in October.
Then there is the Kamala Harris problem. The 58-year-old vice president would be next in line for the Oval Office.
In an administration led by an older commander in chief, the second in command takes on outsize importance. Harris, for reasons that mystify me, is not popular with the Democratic Party base. Rank-and-file voters are not gracing her with confidence or enthusiasm. Forty percent of American voters approve of Harris’ performance, according to an average of surveys tracked by the polling site FiveThirtyEight.
“That will be in my opinion one of the most hard-hitting arguments against Biden,” John Morgan, a prominent fundraiser and former Florida finance chairman for President Bill Clinton, said in a recent interview with The New York Times. “It doesn’t take a genius to say, ‘Look, with his age, we have to really think about this.’ ”
Think away, Democrats. You won’t know how things play out until the hand is played.
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