FOXBOROUGH, Mass. — Even at 6-6, while they reel from bad losses and doubt swirls around them, you can say this for the New England Patriots.
They know exactly where they are.
“It’s getting down to crunch time,” safety Adrian Phillips said Friday. “Every game matters in the season, but when you’re in the position that we’re in right now, these next five games are pretty much going to decide our postseason fate.”
A two-game losing streak has dropped the Patriots out of the AFC playoff picture, which currently shows them sitting eighth in a seven-team field. If they lose their next two at Arizona and Las Vegas, they’ll fall out of the fray all together.
According to FiveThirtyEight’s NFL projections, going 0-2 on their upcoming West Coast road trip would drop the Patriots’ playoff odds to 4%. Currently, they sit at 28%, odds worse than the Chargers – despite the fact the Patriots hold a tiebreaker over Los Angeles – which is also 6-6.
“We’ve gotta go get these two wins,” said outside linebacker Matt Judon.
Beating the Cardinals on Monday night would bump the Patriots’ odds to 43%, per FiveThirtyEight. Going 2-0 out west would send them to 64%, pending the results of other Week 14 and Week 15 games. A 1-1 split would keep their chances between 20% and 30%, before daunting home games against the Bengals and Dolphins and a season finale in Buffalo.
To reset this week, quarterback Mac Jones went so far as to say the Patriots are starting over with their final five games.
“It’s kind of a new season here,” Jones said. “And it starts with this one with the Cardinals, and that’s what we’re going to focus on. We’re in a good spot. We’ve just got to go out there and compete and win, and that’s what it’s all about, is whatever we’ve got to do to figure out how to win.”
The Patriots are 11/2-point favorites in Arizona, home to one of the NFL’s most dysfunctional franchises and worst-coached teams. Even at 4-8, the Cardinals rank as the third-worst team in the league by Football Outsiders’ opponent-and-situation-adjusted metric DVOA. Historically, the Patriots have smashed teams like Arizona.
Even as most of the constants of the Bill Belichick era have fallen apart this season, early season blowouts of Cleveland and Detroit with backup quarterback Bailey Zappe indicate the Patriots could clip the Cardinals. And yet, if the Patriots win Monday and only go 2-2 over their final four games, that may not be enough to clinch a playoff berth in a loaded AFC.
“There’s gonna be a lot of stuff that’s not up to us,” Judon said. “That’s kind of the situation we are in, but what’s up to us, we’ve gotta handle.”
Part of the Patriots’ formula moving forward must involve solving opposing No. 1 wide receivers. Their defense has been roasted in consecutive weeks by All-Pros Justin Jefferson of the Vikings and Stefon Diggs of the Bills. Up next is another All-Pro, DeAndre Hopkins, whom Belichick said this week is as good as any wide receiver he’s ever coached against.
The Patriots will face Hopkins without starting cornerback Jalen Mills, who has missed three straight practices because of a groin injury. His teammates in the secondary realize that with our without Mills, how well they limit Hopkins – and then Davante Adams in Las Vegas – could decide their season.
“There’s no weeks where we’ll come in and say, ‘This guy’s just OK,’” Devin McCourty said this week. “For the rest of the season, we’ve got all really good wide receiver groups.”
In turn, the Patriots are treating their upcoming trip like an extension of the postseason. The stakes have been permanently raised, for them and their opponents.
“Everybody’s playing for something,” McCourty said. “You’re playing for a chance to play more than five games, some teams are playing for a chance to be at the top of the conference. Everybody’s playing for something.”
Until you’re not. If the Patriots return from Arizona and Las Vegas empty-handed, they’ll have nothing to reach for come January. Their season will have died in the desert.
“We’ve gotta get the job done,” Judon said. “We’ve gotta be professionals, go out there and handle our business.”
Said Phillips: “We know we’ve got a tough stretch, but with the season coming to the end, it’s crunch time. It’s time to go.”
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