PATRIOTS THIS WEEK
Patriots (4-4) at Panthers (4-4), 1 p.m. Sunday (CBS)
Spread: Patriots by 4
Outlook: Road teams have won 52% of NFL games thus far and the Patriots at 3-0 away from home. Carolina could finally get running back Christian McCaffrey back from a hamstring injury, but that was iffy along with QB Sam Darnold’s availability after a concussion. There is a big upset shot for Carolina if both play. As is, still hunch Cats with the points.
Prediction: Patriots, 20-17
GAME OF THE WEEK
Packers (7-1) at Chiefs (4-4), 4:25 p.m. (FOX)
Spread: Chiefs by 7 1/2.
Outlook: Aaron Rodgers is out after testing positive for COVID-19, but this game still has plenty of intrigue and mystery with the first career start for Jordan Love. Patrick Mahomes and KC are off, and Green Bay (4-1 on the road) might be a better team even without their superstar QB. The question: Does Andy Reid have enough on defense to make it a tough on Love? An outright upset would not shock, and I love the Pack getting this many points.
Prediction: Chiefs, 27-23.
UPSET OF THE WEEK
Raiders (5-2) at Giants (2-6), 1 p.m. (CBS)
Spread: Raiders by 3.
Outlook: This is a crazy hunch, admittedly, because a lot points to a Vegas win, but, I see an emotional toll for Las Vegas. First it was Coach Jon Gruden forced to resign over his emails disgrace. But this is far worse: Leading receiver Henry Ruggs III abruptly cut after a DUI arrest involving a fatality. Awful tragedy. Huge football loss. Major distraction. The Giants played the Chiefs tough in a 20-17 loss last week. That same effort wins this game.
Prediction: Giants, 20-17.
OTHER GAMES
• @Dolphins (1-7, -6 1/2) over Texans (1-7), 30-20: Miami’s offense is really bad, but Houston’s is worse, plus the Dolphins defense is less-stinky more often than the Texans. But Houston QB Tyrod Taylor, out since Week 2, is finally back and gives the Texans a much better upset shot.
• @Bengals (5-3, -2 1/2) over Browns (4-4), 24-20: Battle of Ohio used to be the Embarrassment Bowl but now it’s a solid matchup – and one of the week’s toughest calls. Expect a Cincy bounce-back effort after last week’s unexpected loss at Jets.
• @Cowboys (6-1, -10) over Broncos (4-4), 34-17: Dallas expects to have Dak Prescott back from calf injury. The Broncos don’t have the firepower to keep up. Dallas is the only perfect team against the spread, 7-0, and I see yet another cover.
• @Saints (5-2, -6) over Falcons (3-4), 23-16: New Orleans wins with running and defense, so it should be able to absorb the injury loss of QB Jameis Winston. Calvin Ridley recusing himself for mental health reasons is a huge loss for Atlanta. Defenses game-planning to take away Kyle Pitts doesn’t leave Matt Ryan with much.
• Bills (5-2, -14 1/2) over @Jaguars (1-6), 34-13: Buffalo leads the NFL in most points scored and fewest allowed. The only teams to lead in both for a season since the 1970 merger were the perfect 1972 Dolphins and the ’96 Packers.
• @Ravens (5-2, -6) over Vikings (3-4), 30-17: Baltimore, coming off a bye, will enjoy a big rest/prep edge after the Vikes played last Sunday night. This could be a shootout if the good Kirk Cousins shows up, but watch for a fired-up effort from Ravens D.
• @Eagles (3-5, +1 1/2) over Chargers (4-3), 27-24: Philly has yet to win at home (0-3) and is due to end that trend. The Eagles unpredictability makes this a risk, but Justin Herbert has struggled the past two games, and Eagles are a top-10 pass defense in fewest yards and yards per attempt allowed.
• Cardinals (7-1, even) over @49ers (3-4), 23-21: Green Bay was all over Kyler Murray’s pocket last week, while San Francisco brings the third-least pressure of any defense. The Cardinals are 4-0 away and the Niners on an 0-7 skid at home. Law of averages scare us on that, but Arizona is simply better on both sides of ball.
• @Rams (7-1, -7 1/2) over Titans (6-2), 37-16: Stud-RB Derrick Henry is lost for season with a foot injury, gutting Tennessee. With Matthew Stafford-to-Cooper Kupp clicking – and now adding pass rusher Von Miller to Aaron Donald – the Rams are legit Super Bowl challengers in a super-loaded NFC.
• @Steelers (4-3, -6 1/2) over Bears (3-5), 23-13: Pittsburgh comes in off three straight wins and Chicago off three straight losses, and don’t see those trends reversing here. Expect a big night for Najee Harris.
Bye weeks: Buccaneers (6-2), Lions (0-8), Seahawks (3-5), Washington (2-6)
Last week: 8-7 overall, 9-6 vs. spread.
Season: 72-50, 59-61-2
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