Portland has finally had its first frost of the season, almost two full weeks behind schedule.

In true October fashion, the first frost is followed closely by the first nor’easter! This one features a healthy amount of rain, some wind, and a lot of stripped leaves by the time it wraps up.

Monday temperatures will be sitting in the 40s. The wind will shift out of the northeast later today, adding to the raw feel.

There could even be some snow flakes in the high elevations. Not sure things stay cool enough for them to stick, though.

An area of low pressure forms off the coast of the Carolinas and rapidly strengthens, with a position off the New Jersey coastline by Tuesday morning.

Locally, heavy rain is expected to build in through the morning as this storm gets closer to New England.

As the day wears on, periods of heavy rain will be accompanied by strong wind gusts.

Don’t take these numbers verbatim. This is a baseline of what to expect.

Wind gusts will be strongest Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning, where gusts could approach or exceed 45 mph along the coastline in York county. They will be closer to 40 mph as you move inland and north along the coast.

There is still a chance that this storm ends up closer to Maine. Should that happen, wind gusts would be stronger, and could cause some damage or power outages. Even northeast gusts to 45 mph could cause some isolated issues to pop up.

A nearby storm, of course, means wave heights will also be on the rise.

Maine’s coast will likely see wave heights peak in the 5-10 foot range on Tuesday evening. By Wednesday, the 10-15 foot waves won’t be too far offshore.

Despite the astronomical low tides, some minor splashover and beach erosion should be expected through the storm’s duration.

Since the pattern is all blocked up, the storm will not be quick to exit.

Showers linger with a stout northeast wind on Wednesday. High temperatures again stay near 50°, and rain totals will be climbing nearby.

As with the wind gusts, this map is not necessarily what will happen, but it is a great guideline.

For starters, a swath of 3-5″ of rain is expected. Right now, it’s most likely along the MA/NH border. That wouldn’t take much of a north shift to end up in our backyards, though.

Even so, a widespread 2-3″+ is expected locally. Some flash flooding will be possible across southwestern Maine.

Another piece to this puzzle is that a lot of leaves will come down. This could clog storm drains, so even areas that don’t typically see high water should be on alert.

Here’s a synopsis of what to expect.

On the bright side (literally), sunshine is back for Thursday.

Don’t get too scared, but another deluge is possible for Halloween weekend.

More on that as we get closer.

Follow me on Twitter, @MikeSliferWX, for more forecast info.

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Seasonably cool and pretty dry to start off November