Roughly 4,500 fans – or 12 percent of capacity – will be in attendance Thursday at Fenway Park for the Red Sox season opener. Last year, no fans were allowed at Fenway because of the coronavirus pandemic. AP Photo/Michael Dwyer
Good news, baseball fans: Opening Day is Thursday, fans are being welcomed back to all 30 stadiums and as soon as the players reach the 85% vaccination mark, restrictions will be relaxed for a season that’s something close to normal.
The bad news? The Boston Red Sox probably aren’t going to make the playoffs.
But that doesn’t mean we can’t make some bold predictions with a fresh 162-game season upon us. The Red Sox are scheduled to open at Fenway Park at 2:10 p.m. Thursday against the Baltimore Orioles.
Without further ado, 10 things we know for sure will absolutely happen this year (or they might not, but who’s to say?):
1. Tanner Houck will be the Red Sox’ best starting pitcher.
Sure, if Houck leads the rotation, it probably wasn’t a very successful season. But at least the Sox will have drafted and developed a legitimate young starter, something they haven’t done since Clay Buchholz was selected 42nd overall in 2005. Houck was touching 97 mph in spring training, but was too erratic with his command early and got optioned back to Triple-A Worcester. Now it looks like Houck could start the year in the rotation to replace the injured Eduardo Rodriguez. His sinker/slider combination is as good as anyone’s, as evident by his 21 strikeouts and 0.53 ERA over three starts last season.
He’s got the build and makeup to be a top-of-the-rotation starter for years to come.
2. Role players thrust into starring roles will run into trouble.
Trying to spend efficiently to fill a handful of holes on the roster this winter, the Sox ended up with role players they hope will be versatile enough to handle increased workloads. It all sounds good in theory, but it’s rarely a slam dunk to take players who were previously part-time guys and stick them into key roles. Kiké Hernandez has only twice in his career collected at least 300 at-bats in a season, and his highest-ever is 414 at-bats in 2019. Now he’ll be the Sox’ leadoff hitter every day, expected to be a Gold Glove candidate at second base while also spending time in center field. Marwin Gonzalez has never before had 500 at-bats in a season, either. Former Sox utility man Brock Holt would often break down with everyday use, instead excelling when playing three or four times a week.
3. Alex Verdugo will score 100 runs.
He scored 36 runs in 52 games hitting leadoff for a last-place team that often looked lifeless in 2020, his first year in a Red Sox uniform. If there was any pressure after getting traded for Mookie Betts and replacing him in right field, Verdugo didn’t show signs of feeling it. He’s got as much confidence as anyone to play the position before him, and at 24 years old, he’s still got plenty of growing to do. His all-fields swing from the left-hand side should play beautifully in Fenway Park. And with J.D. Martinez, Xander Bogaerts and Rafael Devers hitting behind him, Verdugo should be a run-scoring machine in 2021.
4. Jarren Duran get at least 300 at-bats.
Verdugo is more than capable of playing center field, but the Red Sox don’t have much else going on in the outfield. Franchy Cordero is interesting but oft-injured. Hunter Renfroe has huge power but has never been an everyday player. Gonzalez and Hernandez could be needed more in the infield. And at some point soon, if not already, the Sox are going to need a regular center fielder, allowing Verdugo to settle into right, a position he handled well last year. Duran had a monster spring, finishing with a .340 average, 1.069 OPS and three home runs. He’s clearly still a work in progress defensively, and continues to take questionable routes whenever he’s turned around to give chase. But he’s fast enough and talented enough to make an impact this year.
5. The Red Sox will win 74 games and finish in fourth place.
Before you crinkle up this newspaper or slam your laptop shut, let me tell you that this is not what I want to happen. Watching the last-place team struggle in 2020 was painfully boring. We need the Red Sox to be good to keep things interesting around here. I just don’t know where the quality innings are coming from. At this point it seems like a long shot to expect Chris Sale back before the All-Star break.
Counting on oft-injured starting pitchers Nathan Eovaldi and Garrett Richards is a fool’s game. Eduardo Rodriguez is a perfect No. 2 starter, but we don’t know how his body will hold up after missing the entire ’20 season. The only reliable innings the Sox can count on are from Martin Perez, who has the highest ERA in MLB over the last three years. The bullpen has some talent, but it’s difficult to see this pitching staff being able to contain the Yankees, Blue Jays and Rays well enough to go .500 in their 57 games against them.
Everything has to go just perfectly for this team, and there are too many questions to count on that happening.
Rapid fire round!
6. Bobby Dalbec will hit .247 with 31 home runs and 183 strikeouts.
7. Darwinzon Hernandez will end the year as the team’s closer.
8. Bogaerts will finish top-five in MVP voting for the second time in his career.
9. Martinez will have a nice bounce-back season but fall just short of hitting .300.
10. The Red Sox will play their best baseball in September, when prospects like Duran, Jeter Downs, Triston Casas, Bryan Mata, Jay Groome and Thaddeus Ward are given opportunities.
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