Democrat Sara Gideon and Republican Susan Collins are in a virtual tie in the latest poll of Maine’s U.S. Senate race released Tuesday.
The survey of 466 likely voters – conducted from Sept. 24 to Oct. 4 by the Portland-based firm Digital Research Insights for the Bangor Daily News – found that 44 percent of voters said they planned to vote for Gideon compared to 43 percent for Collins. Independents Lisa Savage and Max Linn received 2 percent and 1 percent, respectively.
Maine voters favored Democrat Joe Biden over President Trump by a margin of 51 percent to 40 percent, which is similar to the margin that has been seen in several other polls of the presidential race here.
The Senate results suggest the race is tightening, although the poll’s margin of error was plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.
Several polls of the race last month showed Gideon with a slightly bigger advantage, including a survey of 847 likely voters by Colby College conducted between Sept. 21 and 24 that showed her with an edge of 45 percent to 41 percent over Collins. In that poll, 5 percent said they supported Max Linn while 3 percent picked Savage and 6 percent were undecided. The poll’s margin of error was plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.
Other public polls out last month have showed Gideon with a similar lead, including a poll of 500 likely voters by Suffolk University and the Boston Globe that had Gideon with 46 percent support, Collins at 41 percent and Savage and Linn at 3.8 percent and 1.6 percent, respectively, with 5 percent undecided. A poll of 663 likely voters by the New York Times and Siena University found Gideon was ahead 49-44 percent, but that survey did not include the other candidates.
In an August poll of 500 likely voters conducted by the Bangor Daily News and Digital Research Insights, Gideon held a 5-point advantage.
The recent poll showed U.S. Rep. Jared Golden, a Democrat, with a commanding lead over Republican challenger Dale Crafts. Of those surveyed, 52 percent favored Golden, 34 percent preferred Crafts and 11 percent were undecided. The Colby poll last month showed a similar advantage for Golden. That could be good news for the first-term congressman, whose district leans slightly conservative.
Among voters in the 2nd District only, Trump leads Biden 49 percent to 41 percent, which is the biggest margin the president has seen in any poll this year. Colby’s poll last month showed Biden with a 46-43 percent edge in the 2nd District.
Maine is one of two states (along with Nebraska) that apportions electoral college votes by congressional district. One vote is awarded to the winner of each district and two are awarded to the overall winner of the state. In 2016, Trump lost to Democrat Hillary Clinton in the 1st District and statewide but carried the 2nd District and its one electoral vote.
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