Red Sox outfielder Mookie Betts will become a free-agent after this season and likely command a $300 million contract. AP Photo/Elise Amendola
Red Sox chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom is not in the most enviable position, coming to Boston from Tampa and inheriting the annual pressure to contend while fighting off MLB’s investigation into the 2018 Red Sox, parting ways with the most popular manager since Terry Francona and trying to find a trade for the franchise’s star player, Mookie Betts.
For that, we can certainly understand why he’s patiently dangling Betts in trade talks while asking that any team also take on most or all of the $96 million owed to 34-year-old David Price and send the Red Sox two top prospects.
That’s the asking price, reported by ESPN’s Buster Olney over the weekend, and while it does seem high, if only because Price is probably worth half the value of his remaining contract, it does have its merits.
For one, Betts is a steal for any team that gets him. Yes, he’s making $27 million this year, probably a fair annual salary of someone of his caliber. But where else can a team land a superstar and MVP on a one-year deal? We all know Betts is going to clear $300 million next winter, and it’s probably going to be a lengthy deal that takes him close to age 40. How many of those contracts pan out for the team? Not many. How many position players who rely on speed and defense are still valuable in their late 30s?
Obviously, not many, which is why landing Betts in his prime for one year should have a lot of surplus value.
But second, and perhaps most important, is that the Red Sox, already seeing a decrease in ticket sales, risk losing fan interest quickly if they trade Betts in a deal that doesn’t provide either a budding young pitcher who is big league ready right now, or a good-enough package of prospects to sell the fan base on the long-term goal.
Mike Hazen, the former Red Sox general manager who took over the baseball operation for the Diamondbacks before the 2017 season, was left in a similarly undesirable position last winter.
Arizona had one year left of team control for franchise player Paul Goldschmidt. And while Hazen thought the team could be competitive with him, he traded him to the Cardinals for three young players and a draft pick.
“I think it’s been a hard message,” Hazen said last year. “I think the fans understand. My take is, I don’t think they agree with everything, and I respect that. Especially trading someone like Paul, that’s what you get. We understand it. It wasn’t easy. But this isn’t easy.”
But the D-backs didn’t have a clear direction. They weren’t exactly rebuilding – they stayed competitive and finished 2019 with 85 wins – but they weren’t a contender, either.
“I think it’s easier and cleaner to say you’re one way or the other,” Hazen said. “You’re either all-in, devoting all your resources to your major league team, or you’re out, and you’re devoting few resources to your major league team. We’re not in that position. We’re trying to do both.”
Maybe that’s what the Red Sox can claim if they trade Betts.
The 2020 team might not be a contender, but it should be moderately interesting, somewhat competitive and hey, if everything goes right, maybe they sneak into the playoffs.
It seems like an easier sell than the Orioles had to make when they traded Manny Machado in July 2018. The Orioles were already out of contention, and then they took some heat for waiting too long. Had they traded Machado during the winter, they might’ve gotten a better prospect in return.
Former Orioles general manager Dan Duquette is on the record having said he didn’t want to trade Machado before the season because he thought the Orioles had a chance to be competitive.
The Red Sox need to avoid making the same mistake.
They need a lot of things to go right to be a playoff team in 2020. They have to rely on Chris Sale’s elbow, not just for some solid innings, but for Cy Young quality innings. They need Price and Nathan Eovaldi to stay on the field regularly and effectively. If that happens and the Sox don’t feel the loss of Alex Cora too drastically, then yes, the Red Sox can compete with the Yankees, Astros and Twins in 2020.
Holding onto Betts to start the season has plenty of risk. He could get injured, have a down year or the Red Sox could be so bad through June that Bloom loses all his leverage and ends up taking a deal like the Orioles did with the Dodgers in July.
Is it worth it to wait?
If a team would be willing to send two top prospects and take 60-70 percent of Price’s contract to acquire Betts, Bloom should jump on it.
His asking price is high right now, but he’s still got two months to negotiate.
The faster he rips the Band-Aid off, the better.
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