The assumption of both major parties, the mainstream media and activists on both the right and the left has been that President Trump would run for re-election and very likely win his party’s nomination.
However, if we collectively think Trump is in as much trouble as court filings from both the special counsel and the U.S. attorney’s office for the Southern District of New York suggest, it is not unreasonable to consider that he might resign or not seek a second term. Likewise, he might insist he’ll be vindicated and run, but lose the nomination (which has never happened) when the Republican Party sees his polling numbers tank and realizes the depth and breadth of his legal problems.
What would the Republican 2020 presidential primary look like without Trump? Chaotic, for one thing. There could well be a flock of candidates, falling into one of five categories.
• Vice President Mike Pence is his own category. A stiff, nearly robotic figure who has tied himself to Trump with nauseating sycophancy would certainly not be the favorite. Proximity to Trump, if things are so bad he isn’t running in 2020, would be political death. (Specific questions about what Pence knew and when he knew it could also hobble him.)
• Those loyal Trumpists who would be Trump – but without the lawsuits, prosecutors, conflicts of interest and thick-headedness. In this category, you’d put Sen. Tom Cotton, R-Ark., and a flock of Freedom Caucus members, as well as those Trump supported for office (e.g., Georgia Gov.-elect Brian Kemp). They would have the task of staying loyal to Trump to inherit his base and distancing themselves so as not to be tainted by him. Good luck. If Trump goes down, those who enabled and echoed him uncritically, in all likelihood, won’t be viable candidates.
• Those Republicans who backed Trump’s policies, but put a modicum of distance between themselves and Trump – and did so without incurring the president’s wrath after the 2016 election. Sens. Ted Cruz of Texas, Rob Portman of Ohio, Tim Scott of South Carolina, Ben Sasse of Nebraska, along with a whole bunch of other conservative senators or governors would fall into this category. They would test the proposition of whether the pre-Trump agenda of supply-side tax cuts, hostility toward government and cultural issues – including staunch opposition to comprehensive immigration reform – would fly. (They’d have to figure out how one can be skeptical of government and wear the moniker of conservative while racking up tens of billions in debt.)
• The dissidents who actively criticized Trump, but didn’t have much problem with his actual agenda. Sens. Bob Corker of Tennessee, Jeff Flake of Arizona and, to an extent, Mike Lee of Utah let it be known that they thought Trump unfit for office and found his nativism and fondness for dictators dangerous. However, they were generally pleased with judges, tax cuts, deregulation and efforts to repeal Obamacare.
• Those who see that the problems of the Republican Party and its agenda go well beyond Trump. In this category are successful governors (Ohio’s John Kasich, Maryland’s Larry Hogan and Massachusetts’ Charlie Baker). They stress bipartisanship, a governmental role in health care and combating climate change, and fiscal responsibility. Kasich (or others) might bail out of the party altogether and start a new movement or party.
In sum, this hypothetical presidential primary could well be a battle among those who think Trump was betrayed, those who think Trump is an isolated blip in the history of the country and party and, finally, those who think the party needs a makeover to be attractive to a 21st-century electorate. Then again, this robust debate might be deferred until 2024 if, in the face of common sense and simple decency, Republicans sign on to four more years of Trump and his circus.
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