I feel for Shawn Moody. He never had a chance. No way was a Republican governor in Maine going to be succeeded in office by another Republican governor.
I could have told him that eight years ago.
My insight here derives from a fascinating and little-noted pattern in Maine politics, one that sets us dramatically apart from the other 49 states. In any gubernatorial election not featuring an incumbent, Maine voters will never choose the candidate of the party currently holding the governorship.
In other words, governors in Maine are essentially never succeeded by a member of their own party. When it comes to politics, it appears that Mainers believe in taking turns. Once they have placed a governor in the Blaine House for four or eight years, they act as if it’s only fair to let the leader of the other major party (or even an independent) have the same amount of time in the same office.
Let’s take a look at the clear and strong evidence.
In 1958, Edmund Muskie, term-limited as governor, ran for (and won) a U.S. Senate seat. At the same time the Maine governorship was unexpectedly won by Muskie’s fellow Democrat, Clinton Clauson. Mainers thus handed the governorship to a member of the same party as the outgoing governor. That was a few years ago: 60, to be precise. Nothing like that has happened since.
This brief chart illustrates the pattern:
• 1958 – Clinton Clauson, Democrat
• 1960 – John Reed, Republican
• 1966 – Kenneth Curtis, Democrat
• 1974 – James Longley, independent
• 1978 – Joseph Brennan, Democrat
• 1986 – John McKernan, Republican
• 1994 – Angus King, independent
• 2002 – John Baldacci, Democrat
• 2010 – Paul LePage, Republican
• 2018 – Janet Mills, Democrat
Sixteen elections have come and gone without a break in the trend. Shall we call it the Curse of the Incumbent Party? No wonder Shawn Moody had trouble getting elected.
With this record, Maine is unique. No other state comes close to matching it – except Vermont. That state has alternated political parties in the governorship since 1960 (but has never elected an independent, as Maine has done twice).
What sets Maine off from the other states? A good answer would require many pages, but let me propose three ideas to mull over. First, chance plays a role, as it does more often than we care to admit in human affairs. Many of the elections in this period were close and might have gone another way under slightly different circumstances. So we must be cautious about proposing an “iron law” of party displacement here.
My second point gets to the heart of the matter. Maine has long been one of the most competitive states in the nation. Since the 1950s, our electorate has been almost evenly divided into thirds: Democrats, Republicans and independents. No wonder the parties alternate as they do.
Whoever wins an election represents, by definition, well under half the population. The out party, after a term or two in the wilderness, will team up with the independents to oust the governing party. And sometimes it’s the independents who find a popular candidate and team up with the out party to achieve victory.
Finally, we have to consider the sheer orneriness of the Maine voter. No other state has so many citizens who refuse to identify with either major party. No other state has so many serious candidates for office who declare themselves independent. Independent candidates have been elected to the Blaine House twice and served as governor for 12 years. In other elections independent candidates have come in second, finishing ahead of a major party nominee. Again, no other state has a record anything like this.
How long will the pattern continue? Who can say, but it doesn’t pay to bet against a 60-year trend!
So my advice to Janet Mills and Maine Democrats is simple: Enjoy your four or eight years in office. Put your cherished policies into effect as soon as possible and hope they become entrenched in voters’ minds – something that’s finally happening with Obamacare. Unfortunately, the odds are high (ouch!) – that you will be succeeded by a governor and a set of political operatives holding a very different political ideology from your own.
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