NFL scouts, coaches and execs have one of the toughest jobs in the world trying to identify talent and future stars when evaluating thousands of 20 somethings that are simply seeds in the process.
This is my seventh year completing an NFL mock draft. One thing that I’ve learned is that as interesting and fun as these things are … ultimately they are a crapshoot and fall flat. My record was in 2014 with 13 correct picks, but if I can hit on seven than I am a happy man. May the crapshoot gods bless me with 14 this year.
Here is the first version of my 2018 NFL Mock Draft. Note: I DO NOT project trades.
1. Cleveland: Sam Darnold (QB, USC) — The Browns have their bridge quarterback in Tyrod Taylor. They will look toward the future with Darnold at No. 1.
2. New York Giants: Saquon Barkley (RB, Penn State) —As much as the Giants want their next quarterback, Barkley will be too talented to pass on. Having New York megastar Jay-Z as his agent will only further ease his transition to the Big Apple.
3. Indianapolis: Bradley Chubb (DE, NC State) — Indy takes the best player available in Chubb, who immediately bolsters the pass rush.
4. Cleveland: Minkah Fitzpatrick (S, Alabama) — The Browns beefed up their offense in free agency, so taking the best remaining defensive player makes sense in Fitzpatrick, who can play anywhere in the backfield.
5. Denver: Baker Mayfield (QB, Oklahoma) — Mayfield has many question marks regarding his ability — and character — but John Elway has made it clear how much he admires his competitiveness. Broncos reach for Mayfield at No. 5.
6. New York Jets: Josh Rosen (QB, UCLA) — The Jets have a handful of QBs on the roster, but they are as desperate as ever to finally find the real one. They choose the most NFL-ready prospect, who has some character concerns in Rosen.
7. Tampa Bay: Derwin James (S, Florida State) — Bucs could go offense, but will likely go with James. Tampa gave up the most yards in the league, and James will provide immediate help in the secondary as one of the top three D-backs in the draft.
8. Chicago: Quenton Nelson (OG, Notre Dame) — The Bears choose the top offensive lineman to replace Josh Sitton and protect second-year starter Mitchell Trubisky.
9. San Francisco: Tremaine Edmunds (LB, Virginia Tech) — Richard Sherman shores up the secondary, Edmunds gives San Fran a high-caliber linebacker for the front seven.
10. Oakland: Denzel Ward (CB, Ohio State) — Sean Smith is gone, the Raiders need help in the secondary and grab arguably the top cornerback in the class.
11. Miami: Roquan Smith (LB, Georgia) — With Lawrence Timmons’ departure, the Dolphins add a linebacker ready to start.
12. Buffalo (trade from Cincinatti): Josh Allen (QB, Wyoming) — The Bills are likely to trade up again, but if not will take Allen, who is the last QB available from the top group.
13. Washington: Vita Vea (DT, Washington) — The Redskins have enough on offense so will take Vea to add to the defensive front seven … which was last in the league in run defense in 2017.
14. Green Bay: Marcus Davenport (LB, UTSA) — Although the Packers signed Muhammed Wilkerson, Davenport will still be on their radar considering his NFL-ready pass rushing ability. Green Bay allowed the highest opponent passer rating in the NFC last year, so adding to the rush will help.
15. Arizona: Mike McGlinchey (OT, Notre Dame) — Sam Bradford allows the Cardinals to hold off until Round 2 to select a developmental QB. The goal for this season will be to protect the oft-injured Bradford, especially against the tough NFC West.
16. Baltimore: Calvin Ridley (WR, Alabama) — The Ravens take the best receiver in the draft to give Joe Flacco a new No. 1 wideout.
17. Los Angeles Chargers: Da’Ron Payne (DT, Alabama) — The Chargers allowed a league-worst 4.9 yards per carry. Payne is the second best run stuffer in the draft.
18. Seattle: Mike Hughes (CB, UCF) — The departures of Richard Sherman and Jeremy Lane leave a gaping hole at the corner position. Hughes is smaller than your typical Seahawk defenseman, but is an elite cover corner ready to start.
19. Dallas: Rashaan Evans (LB, Alabama) — The Cowboys could go D-line here, but will choose seasoned linebacker Evans.
20. Detroit: Taven Bryan (DT, Florida) — Detroit needs a running back, but history has shown that you can find premiere backs in Rounds 2 and 3. The Lions choose the last of the top-tier DTs in the draft.
21. Cincinatti: James Daniels (C, Iowa) — Cordy Glenn stabilizes the tackle spot … the Bengals add the best pure center in the draft, which should immediately turn around their O-line woes.
22. Buffalo: Connor Williams (OT, Texas) — The Bills will either get a top-notch defensive player or a QB early. Williams will replace the hole left by Glenn at the tackle spot.
23. Los Angeles Rams: Harold Landry (DE, Boston College) — The Rams have made some tweaks in the defensive front seven by letting Robert Quinn and Connor Barwin go. Drafting a top-tier edge rusher makes sense.
24. Carolina: Josh Jackson (CB, Iowa) — After trading away starting cornerback Daryl Worley, the Panthers will plug the hole with Jackson.
25. Tennessee: Will Hernandez (G, Texas-El Paso) — The Titans are soft on the interior, and will select Hernandez, who impressed at the Senior Bowl and in interviews.
26. Atlanta: Isaiah Wynn (OG, Georgia) — The Falcons, who were terrible on third and short, get good value by drafting Wynn who can play multiple positions on the line.
27. New Orleans: Hayden Hurst (TE, South Carolina) — After missing out on Jimmy Graham, the Saints will look to the most polished tight end coming out of the draft, who should provide Drew Brees the legitimate receiving threat down the seam and in the red zone that he’s missed since Graham’s departure.
28. Pittsburgh: Justin Reid (S, Stanford) — Pittsburgh let three defensive backs walk, and are down to only one viable safety in Sean Smith. Reid had a great combine to help him jump into the first round.
29. Jacksonville: Christian Kirk (WR, Texas A&M) — The Jaguars need more playmakers in the passing game, and Kirk may have the highest upside at the receiver position. With Allen Robinson gone the Jags taking a receiver is a near lock.
30. Minnesota: Billy Price (G, Ohio State) — Price gives Minnesota versatility, as he is able to play at all three interior spots.
31. New England: Leighton Vander Esch (LB, Boise State) — Left tackle and cornerback are possibilities, but the Pats struggled at the linebacker spot for the majority of last year. Vander Esch is arguably the most complete linebacker in the draft, contributing in the run game, pass rush, and coverage.
32. Philadelphia: D.J. Moore (WR, Maryland) — Word out of Maryland is that Moore is a near carbon copy of Stefon Diggs, who he replaced a couple years ago. The Eagles are well-stocked in most areas. They will look to replace the void left by Torrey Smith and add to their offensive firepower.
Other names to watch: Jaire Alexander (CB, Louisville); Ronnie Harrison (S, Alabama); Derrius Guice (RB, LSU); Orlando Brown (OT, Oklahoma); Lorenzo Carter (DE, Georgia)
— Associate Sports Editor Alex Sponseller can be reached at asponseller@journaltribune.com or at 282-1535 ext. 323. Follow the Journal Tribune Sports Department on Twitter @JournalTsports.
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