WASHINGTON — The Republican tax bill would cut 2018 taxes on average across all income groups, with the biggest reductions by far going to upper-income people, a group of nonpartisan tax analysts said Monday.
The projections by the Tax Policy Center also found that by 2027 – when most tax provisions affecting individuals would have expired – just over half of all taxpayers would face higher levies.
The group released its figures a day before the House, and possibly the Senate, is expected to approve the tax bill in what would be the year’s first major legislative win for President Trump and Republicans.
Most of the bill’s benefits go to businesses and the wealthy, which Republicans say would goose the economy and benefit all. Democrats reject that assertion and are expected to oppose the bill unanimously.
The study found that, on average, individual taxes would be reduced next year by $1,600. That ranges on average from $60 for people earning below $25,000 to $7,640 for those making above $149,000.
Those in the top 1 percent – earning over $733,000 – would see average tax cuts of $51,140.
In 2027, 53 percent of families would face tax increases averaging $180. Those tax hikes on average would grow with income.
One in four taxpayers that year would have tax reductions averaging $1,540, with the cut larger for higher-earning people.
Republicans ended the individual tax cuts in 2026 to conform to Senate rules that require them to limit federal debt increases. The bill is projected to boost federal shortfalls by nearly $1.5 trillion over the coming decade.
Republicans have said they would expect a future Congress to continue the tax cuts so they won’t expire, which, if achieved, would drive up deficits further.
On Monday, moderate Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine, said she’d support the bill, meaning all voting Republicans are expected to back it, enough for passage. Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., is at home battling brain cancer and is expected to miss the vote. Republicans control the Senate by 52-48.
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