A strong, rather unusual, May nor’easter is going to develop over the weekend inside the cool pattern that will go on for a few more days. If this was winter you’d be hearing forecasts ranging from 6-10 inches of snow up to 2 feet or more. The wide range in totals is a result of the unsure track of this coastal storm. More on this shortly.
The American model shows a storm moving north along the coast later this weekend.
The weekend storm takes shape in the middle of the country. The storm won’t arrive until Saturday evening. If you need to get some outdoor activities done the weather will be dry today and tomorrow. It’s not going to be very warm, certainly below the average high temperature in the mid-60s. Heading to Boston? The Red Sox will have no issues playing tonight, but it might not remain dry the entire game on Saturday. If there was a way to move that game up a few hours it would all but guarantee they’ll get it in.
Let’s get back to the movement of the upcoming nor’easter. What we do know is from Saturday evening through much of Sunday it’s going to be wet. Just how wet and how windy remains somewhat in question. The European model, a set of physical equations used to forecast the weather developed by the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting, keeps the storm a bit farther east, and thus predicts less accumulated rain, generally three-quarters to an inch. In contrast, the GFS, the model developed by NOAA, predicts 2 to 3 inches of rain. Either way, Sunday isn’t going to be bright and sunny and all those lilacs and other flowers will be drooping heavily under the weight of the added moisture.
The upper level energy for our storm is swirling over Oklahoma this morning with clouds and rain ahead of this feature. As the storm moves east it will redevelop off the coastline and then proceed northeast into eastern Canada. Of interest are two other storms on the satellite – one off the Pacific Northwest coast and the other east of Nova Scotia.
If we do see rainfall over 2 inches, there will be some minor street and small-stream flooding. However, although the drought is over, river levels are not unusually high and a few inches of rain will easily be absorbed by them.
Heaviest rainfall will occur along the southern half of Maine
Rainfall through Sunday could exceed 2 inches if the nor’easter comes close to the coast.
During the peak of the storm, Sunday morning, it will be breezy, perhaps even strong enough to be called windy, but nothing damaging and I don’t expect power outages or anything of the sort.
Besides some rain, this storm will help the jet stream undergo a pattern change. As the storm moves into Canada, the jet stream will lift north and take the cool pattern with it. Temperatures on Monday will return closer to average and then above average Tuesday through Thursday. It won’t be clear until Tuesday. There are some indications by then that temperatures could be in the 80s. For many of you this will be a wonderful treat after the early-May chill.
Warmer air arrives for the middle of next week.
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