On Tuesday afternoon we saw Hurricane Matthew continuing its movement toward the north just off the tip of Cuba, heading toward the Bahamas and very close to the east coast of Florida.
The projected track of Hurricane Matthew as of 11 p.m. Tuesday.
The present predicted path of the storm has resulted in tropical storm watches and warnings being posted for portions of Florida in addition to the Bahamas. The storm has already caused widespread flooding and destruction in Haiti and you may be wondering how it could affect our weather late this weekend.
A few things about forecasting hurricanes: A difference of 50 miles in the track of the storm can be the difference between damaging wind or just strong winds. The image below shows how tight the hurricane-force winds are with Matthew – only about 35 miles from the center of the storm.
This wind field can and will expand as the storm moves northward, but for the next few days, it will remain quite tight. This is important because even if the storm is offshore when it reaches our area, the wind can still be a factor, mostly along the coast.
There are still pieces of the atmosphere well into Canada that will ultimately influence how Matthew does play into our forecast this weekend.
Rainfall and storm surges typically do more damage than the wind, because they can cover a wider area. These elements are always of concern even if the storm loses hurricane strength as it moves into colder waters closer to New England.
No one can predict with a high level of certainty what Hurricane Matthew will do this weekend. However, most viable working scenarios right now show that a trough of low pressure to the west and the hurricane (or tropical storm if it has weakened) would interact in such a way to bring a period of rain late Saturday and/or Sunday. Clearing should take place for Columbus Day with much colder air arriving.
One scenario allows Matthew’s moisture to move north.
Another possibility is the entire system never reaches New England and stays south. The moisture would never get here and the drought continues to increase.
High pressure could keep Matthew from ever reaching New England.
I don’t see a direct hit from Matthew in the cards for New England.
It’s very tough for a hurricane to make landfall in Maine at any time of the year, but even harder in October because the ocean is rapidly cooling.
The European model has always kept the storm off our coast rather than reaching the shore and the latest version of the American model is now leaning this way.
In spite of all the destruction Matthew has and will cause, the storm could bring beneficial rain here, and while it will not get rid of the drought, it could make a sizable dent in it.
Remember, all of this is still days away, so be prepared for a changing forecast and follow my latest thinking on Twitter @growingwisdom.
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