WATERVILLE — The race between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump is narrowing in Maine and it appears increasingly likely that the Republican could walk away with at least one of the state’s electoral votes in November, according to a new poll by the Boston Globe and Colby College.
The poll, conducted last week by SurveyUSA, shows Clinton leading Trump 42 percent to 39 percent in Maine with less than eight weeks until Election Day, according to a news release Tuesday from Colby College. That falls within the poll’s margin of error of 3.5 percentage points.
An earlier Portland Press Herald/Maine Sunday Telegram poll, conducted in mid-June, showed Clinton leading Trump 42 percent to 35 percent with 19 percent supporting another candidate and 4 percent undecided.
“It would seem that Maine is once again a bellwether state, as our poll reflects both the tightness of the presidential race and the divided nature of American politics,” said Dan Shea, a professor of government and director of Colby’s Goldfarb Center for Public Affairs and Civic Engagement, who directed the poll. “Maine could make the difference in who we elect as our next president.”
The narrowing gap suggests that for the first time in state history, one candidate might not win all four of Maine’s electoral votes, the release said.
Maine is one of just two states, along with Nebraska, where the general election winner does not automatically take all the electoral votes. Instead, two of the votes go to the statewide winner and one vote goes to the winner of each congressional district. The new poll has Trump leading Clinton by 10 percentage points in the 2nd District.
One electoral vote means little in a lopsided race, but in a tight race it could make a difference. Not since Democrat Al Gore carried Maine in 2000 has the presidential race been this closely contested, the Colby release said. President Obama carried Maine by 15 percentage points over Republican Mitt Romney in 2012.
The poll, based on interviews with 779 registered voters, also shows Maine’s Rep. Chellie Pingree easily winning re-election in the 1st District – she has a 20-point lead over Republican challenger Mark Holbrook among poll respondents.
The new poll has incumbent Republican U.S. Rep. Bruce Poliquin leading Democratic challenger Emily Cain in the 2nd District by 5 percentage points. The earlier Press Herald poll had the race in a virtual tie, with Poliquin leading 41 percent to 40 percent and 12 percent undecided.
Fifty-four percent of poll respondents said they had no confidence in Republican Gov. Paul LePage’s ability to govern, while 40 percent, including 85 percent of Republicans, said they do have confidence in the governor.
A majority of Mainers polled – 59 percent – also supported Obama’s recent order creating the 87,500-acre Katahdin Woods National Monument near Millinocket.
Analysts say the high-stakes presidential race is expected to boost voter turnout, which historically has benefited Democratic candidates in down-ballot races.
While Republican Sen. Susan Collins has said she will not vote for Trump, Poliquin has not said whether he will support the Republican nominee. This has drawn criticism from his opponent and others who say he is not being transparent with voters.
The Colby College poll suggests approval for Collins and Maine’s other senator, independent Angus King, is robust, at over 60 percent for each.
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