Is there any reason to believe this time? I ask you.
You tell me David Price. I say, who else?
But, you insist, Craig Kimbrel is the closer. I fire back with two questions: Does Kimbrel still use “Welcome to the Jungle” as his entrance song? (I hope so.) And just how many leads will Kimbrel get to protect?
Now you’re getting mad, reaching for your best comeback. “Won’t the team want to win it all for Big Papi?” you ask. Hmm. I pause and remind you of the Yankees’ final season with Derek Jeter. How did that work for them? (Hint: no playoffs.)
For me, the pressing question about the David Ortiz farewell tour concerns the creativity of opposing teams when they present gifts to the big man. How many rocking chairs made of baseball bats will he receive?
And will Ortiz’s prolonged goodbye overshadow (or distract from) a team that has finished last the past two seasons and enters 2016 with so many questions that the Fenway Faithful can’t possibly feel comfortable.
True, some respected prognosticators are picking Boston to finish first. But several also picked the Red Sox as AL East champs in 2015.
Last season, Boston won 78 games.
This season?
Let’s look at this Red Sox team, broken down into six categories. I realize “broken down” may not be the nicest terminology, but Boston already has two pitchers on the disabled list, and neither is named Clay Buchholz.
THE ROTATION
THE PRIZE OF the offseason free-agent market, David Price, is being hailed by a Red Sox Nation that has cried out for an ace since Jon Lester departed.
But an ace can only do so much, evidenced by Pedro Martinez’s first five seasons with Boston (and two playoff appearances). Price is very good, with a career 104-56 record and 3.09 ERA, averaging 210 innings a season.
But the starters after him are part of the same group that compiled a 4.39 ERA last year, 13th out of 15 American League teams – and the only starter not back is Wade Miley, the winningest pitcher of the group (11 wins).
Are Rick Porcello (4.92 ERA last season) and Joe Kelly (4.82) that much improved? Can Buchholz, who has averaged 112 innings per season, be counted on after seven stints on the disabled list in the past eight years?
Eduardo Rodriguez (10-6, 3.88) looks promising but begins on the DL with a kneecap injury.
THE BULLPEN
REBUILDING THE BULLPEN was a priority of new president Dave Dombrowski. He made two good deals over the winter, bringing in Kimbrel as closer and hard-throwing right-hander Carson Smith to set up. A forearm strain sidelined Smith, who may be back in a month or two.
Kimbrel appears to be the real deal (alarmists may point out his 2.58 ERA and 1.045 WHIP last year were career worsts, but nothing suggests a real downturn).
Without Smith, 40-year-old Koji Uehara and usually-reliable Junichi Tazawa are the chief set-up relievers. Tazawa is effective as long as he’s not overused and he doesn’t face the Blue Jays (Toronto hit .404 against him the past two years).
Matt Barnes is the wild card. He had a 4.13 ERA as a reliever last year. But he looked very comfortable out of the bullpen this spring in 12 appearances: 0.73 with 13 strikeouts and two walks in 121/3 innings.
Lefty Tommy Layne held left-handed batters to a .148 average last year.
THE OUTFIELD
MOOKIE MANIA is spreading throughout New England and MVP predictions for Mookie Betts are appearing after a breakout season (.291/.820 OPS, 18 home runs and 21 stolen bases) in 2015. Huge expectations can be a burden, but Betts always appears grounded and eager to improve.
But what about Betts’ fellow outfielders? Jackie Bradley Jr. will win a Gold Glove if he can stay in the lineup. He improved to .249/.832 last year – including a sizzling August (.354/1.163).
Left field is a surprise with Rusney Castillo on the bench despite his $10.5 million salary. The platoon will be Chris Young (.327/.972 against left-handed pitching) and Brock Holt (.280/.727 against all pitching). Using Holt in the outfield diminishes a strength – his versatility as a utility player.
THE POWER
THE AGE-DEFYING Ortiz has a challenge in his final year – maintaining his power. Ortiz has averaged 34 home runs a season in his Red Sox career, including 37 last year at age 39.
But turning 40 seems to be a drain on power hitters. Only one player has hit more than 26 home runs during his age-40 season (Darrell Evans’ 34 in 1987).
While the Red Sox front office milks Ortiz’s much-publicized final season, the team could use his muscle. After Ortiz, the next-highest home run total last year came from Hanley Ramirez – 19, but only nine after April.
THE INFIELD
INFIELD CONCERNS ABOUND, but none involve Xander Bogaerts, who has demonstrated he can handle shortstop (ranking fourth defensively among American League shortstops, along with a league-best 4.3 WAR among shortstops).
The rest of the infield comes with questions. Ramirez has moved to first base after a disastrous try in left field. Reports out of spring training are encouraging. Can we admit the jury is still out?
The jury is also still deliberating third base, where underperforming Pablo Sandoval has been benched for overachieving Travis Shaw. The son of a major leaguer, Shaw carries himself well. Still, he is under a lot of pressure, replacing a veteran with a $95 million contract.
Second base never used to be a question, but Dustin Pedroia is 32. While still a gamer, he played only 93 games last year because of injury, and he’s been hampered by injuries in the past. Boston needs Pedroia’s swagger, not another scenario of him grabbing for his hamstring.
THE CATCHERS
CATCHING LOOKS FINE with Blake Swihart starting, veteran Ryan Hanigan as a backup, and Christian Vazquez – the best defender of them all – being brought along cautiously after Tommy John surgery.
Much was made of Swihart’s development last year, batting .303/.805 in the second half. His defense is improving, although not near the other two. Hanigan is insurance. Should Vazquez be ready soon, after time in Triple-A Pawtucket, look for a trade. Then the challenge becomes working out a Vazquez-Swihart platoon.
THE BOTTOM LINE
SO HOW WILL the Red Sox do? Last week, we optimistically predicted 87 wins, a nine-win improvement over last year. I’m figuring five more because of Price, two because of Kimbrel, one because of an All-Star year from Betts, and one because Ortiz has a final walk-off homer inside him.
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