Sen. Bernie Sanders put together a trifecta Saturday: lopsided wins in three caucuses that have his supporters cheering.
Unfortunately for Sanders’ backers, however, the victories didn’t do much to change the shape of a Democratic primary race in which Hillary Clinton remains the odds-on favorite.
Even after Saturday’s Sanders victories, Clinton holds a lead of more than 260 pledged delegates to the Democratic nominating convention. That does not include the additional lead of about 440 that she holds among the so-called superdelegates – party leaders and elected officials who can vote as they choose at the convention.
A lead of 260 delegates is a big one – bigger than the lead Barack Obama built over Clinton in 2008. Overcoming it would require some really big wins in big states.
Sanders had shown he can win in states that have overwhelmingly white populations and in states that hold caucuses rather than primaries. Saturday’s contests were all caucuses, and two took place in states – Alaska and Washington – that have largely white populations.
In today’s Democratic Party, a candidate cannot win without significant black and Latino support. With the exception of his victory in Michigan, Sanders has notably failed to win primaries in states with large black or Latino populations.
After Saturday, only two more states hold caucuses – Wyoming and North Dakota, both small states with few delegates. There are also few heavily white states left to vote. In addition to the two caucus states, Sanders’ current pattern would indicate that he should do well in West Virginia, Oregon, Montana and South Dakota.
But Sanders would have to win states like Wisconsin, which votes on April 5, New York on April 19 and Pennsylvania a week later. And he needs to win those by large margins.
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