It’s a mild Sunday for everyone with highs as warm as they have been in 10 days or more. It’s been a cold month overall and this is certainly going to be a welcome change. You will be able to get outside and do any yard chores without feeling like it’s the middle of winter.
Highs this afternoon are going to be in the mid to upper 40s and although there will be some clouds mixing with the sunshine, there won’t be any precipitation.
Even warmer air surges north tomorrow morning on a band of rain. The timing of these showers is such it will impact the morning commute. I expect wet roads, puddles, and mild air early tomorrow. The map below is for 7AM, the rain will likely be falling over southern Maine at that time.
After the rain departs, skies may partially clear and it’s going to feel like spring. Highs will reach at least the upper 50s and if we get enough sunshine, some towns southwest of Portland could nudge near 60F!
A weak system will bring slightly cooler air for Tuesday, but also more sunshine. Tuesday is my pick for the week with high 50-56 and dry conditions. It’s a good day to go shopping and get errands done before Thanksgiving.
Storm Potential
I tweeted yesterday about the potential for snow and rain on Wednesday evening and overnight and this is still the case. One of the things I want to do is not oversell the storm, nor do I want to diminish the possible scenarios.
At this point it’s all about probability. No forecaster can say with great confidence if there will be snow or not Wednesday night, but all of us know there is the potential. Some of the models we use are clearly indicating a change to snow from rain during the overnight hours Wednesday, while others are keeping the storm out to sea.
The European model is the coldest and snowiest, but even the American (GFS) model is now trending a bit colder and snowier. I can’t ignore it.
Travel Wednesday morning will be without weather issues. Even if the storm does impact us later in the day, it won’t begin until after 1PM.
The graph below gives you an idea of the huge range in potential for the midweek storm.
Current Thinking
Wednesday afternoon rain will overspread the area with temperatures in the chilly lower 40s. During the evening the rain may change to snow from west of Portland to the east and begin to accumulate. The rain-snow line might push as far south as coastal York County before the precipitation ends and skies clear.
It turns blustery as skies clear later Thursday morning and sunshine returns during the afternoon. The rest of the holiday weekend will be dry and very cold feeling more like Christmas.
Changing plans
Whenever there is a potential for a storm it can impact travel and other plans. At this point you are playing odds if you change your plans for later Wednesday and especially Wednesday night. There is a chance we won’t see any snow and if you moved things around it will have been for not. Equally possible, you’ll be a hero if we end up with a plowable snow event. The worst time to travel will be from about 3PM Wednesday to 6AM Thursday the way it appears right now.
Recap
Rain impact the Monday morning commute, it’s dry and mild Tuesday there is going to be a coastal storm during the middle of this week. How the coastal storm impacts the area is still unknown and with over three days before it happens, my confidence is still low as to the outcome. I’ll be updating on Twitter and here over the coming days.
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