Four weeks to go, and then we Mainers will be choosing our next chief executive ”“ our next governor. According to the most reliable polls, Gov. Paul LePage is not doing very well for an incumbent, between 38 and 39 percent, which has been and continues to be his base. U.S. Rep. Mike Michaud is running at 37 to 43 percent, and independent candidate Eliot Cutler is at 10 to 15 percent, varying from poll to poll.

Although it may be possible for Cutler to rally and get in the game, it is very unlikely, unless Michaud does something that is totally discrediting. You may recall that in 2010 Cutler got 37 percent of the vote, only 1 percent less than LePage did. That was because the Democratic candidate, Libby Mitchell, had a weak showing, so many Democrats voted for Cutler. Mitchell garnered just 19 percent of the vote. Had all those voters gone for Cutler, he would’ve won by a landslide.

Maine seems to be less cozy with the political parties than many other states. Many Republicans and Democrats tend to vote for the person they like whether or not they are in a particular party. Cutler is well-educated, street smart, articulate and has an actual plan for our state. He wrote a book about it called “A State of Opportunity.” He has also been endorsed by independent U.S. Sen. Angus King, who has always been very popular in Maine.

So what has gone wrong for Cutler this time? Well, one factor is that Michaud is not Mitchell. He is a strong candidate, well liked by many across the political spectrum. He’s from northern Maine, a former mill worker, is a friend to the environment and, in fact, has been endorsed by the Maine League of Conservation Voters, a nonprofit, nonpartisan organization devoted to preserving and protecting the state’s natural resources.

There’s another reason Cutler is not doing well. Democrats and independents are very unhappy with Gov. LePage, both in style and substance. In terms of style, we all know how he has used foul language in public as well as demonize, and even sometimes attempt to physically intimidate, those with whom he disagrees. On the substance side, after four years of his administration, the first two with a Republican-controlled Legislature, our economy in Maine remains in shambles. Businesses are folding at an alarming rate, unemployment is high and underemployment ”“ people working for far less money than they can afford ”“ is devastating. All this makes many independents and most Democrats cringe at the thought of four more years of this, and they see a vote for Cutler as a second term for LePage. After all, splitting the vote between the Democrat and independent in 2010 is what allowed LePage to win in the first place.

Clearly most Mainers don’t want the governor to have a second term, but they can’t fully agree what or who they are for. Michaud is currently polling only slightly ahead of LePage ”“ and within the margin of error. Michaud has some problems as well though. Most people are not familiar with his legislative record, so they don’t know how he stands on fiscal and social issues. He is being billed as a “fiscal conservative” and socially moderate. Most Mainers would fall into that category, but many are unsure that he is in it. They wonder if that is just the talking points of his campaign.

He also has a clear record of successfully working with Republicans, but I’m not sure most folks understand the importance of working with the other party. Perhaps a good example would be how little has been accomplished by the LePage administration because the governor does not value that approach. Finally, if Michaud does get elected and he turns out to be yet another Democrat who spends too much on the social side and not enough, or in the right way, on the investment side, and drives Maine further off the economic cliff, Democrats will likely not see the inside of the Blaine house for many years to come. They will have lost their credibility for a very long time. On the other hand, if Michaud wins and turns out to be the thoughtful, respectful, fiscally conservative, socially moderate executive we need, and he claims he is, Maine finally might get on the road to fiscal recovery.

Whomever you support and will vote for in a few weeks, this election is vitally important. Please read everything you can in our paper and others so you can make the most informed decision possible.

Thanks for reading, and have a good week.

— Bruce M. Hardina is the publisher of the Journal Tribune, a singer-songwriter, philosopher, student of life and the human experience, columnist, entrepreneur and family man. To comment on his musings, email bhardina@journaltribune.com or mail a note to Journal Tribune, Attn.: Bruce Hardina, 457 Alfred St., Biddeford, ME 04005.

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