While all eyes are on the governor’s race, Maine’s Legislature could be facing a big power shake-up, too.
Maine Republicans say they will take control of the Senate in the Nov. 2 elections and may even win a majority in the House of Representatives.
Democrats aren’t conceding anything, and political observers say a takeover of both the House and Senate is a long shot.
If they succeed, however, it would be the first time since 1972 that Maine voters have given Republicans control of both houses.
“It’s been a long time since Democrats have had to defend every single seat,” said Lance Dutson, spokesman for the Maine Republican Party.
Dutson said his confidence is based both on localized polling and on the national wave of support for Republicans promising to rein in government spending.
Democrats say the predictions are a case of overconfidence.
“These so-called waves may happen But I don’t expect it to hit Maine. Mainers choose candidates based on local issues. Maine voters are too independent to get swept up by national political waves,” said Arden Manning, executive director of the Maine Democratic Party.
“Our House and Senate races come down to local issues. It’s a matter of who’s knocking on doors and who’s meeting their neighbors,” Manning said.
The Maine Senate had 20 Democrats and 15 Republicans in the last session. The House was split 95-55 in favor of Democrats, with one independent member.
The majority party controls the agenda in each house, but it takes both houses — and the governor — to pass laws and adopt budgets. Democrats have held control of both houses since 2003, when the Senate was split 17-17, with one independent.
The key to who controls the Legislature next year may hinge on whether the national frustration with government spending and debt will trickle down into individual House and Senate races, overtaking local concerns such as roads and bridges.
Dutson said voters are just as frustrated about big government in Maine as everywhere else.
“Maine people feel like they don’t have to be victim of a bad economy anymore,” he said. “I’ve never seen an electorate so singularly focused on the issues.”
The party’s confidence is partly based on polling in individual districts, Dutson said. The research has led the party to support candidates in traditionally Democratic districts, including in Augusta, Bangor and Jay.
“Right now, we are very confidently looking at picking up 18 to 20 seats in the Senate,” he said. Eighteen seats would be a majority.
Dutson admits taking control of the House is “going to be a tougher slog.” But, he said the party is hoping to win 78 or more seats, a gain of 23 or more. With 151 members in the House, 76 seats represent a majority.
Democrats say they haven’t done polling in the districts, but they don’t believe Maine voters are getting caught up in the national mood. Voters here are asking about issues facing their own communities, said Manning.
“We’re not taking anything for granted, and we are working very, very hard,” he said.
Political experts say Republicans may well take control of the Senate, but a shift of power in the House is a long shot.
“Some of these national trends do trickle down to state politics,” said Michael Franz, associate professor of government at Bowdoin College.
Franz said the Senate could definitely go to the Republicans. He said the makeup of the House is likely to tighten up, with Democrats holding a smaller majority. A Republican majority is unlikely, but not impossible, he said.
“The question is, can they push through that many Republicans? That would be tough.”
Mark Brewer, a political scientist at the University of Maine, agreed. “I would be extremely surprised if they were to take control of the House.”
Brewer said the national wave will be a factor in the upcoming legislative elections, but not the only one.
“When you get these kind of national wave-type elections, such as in 2006 or 1994, nobody is completely immune to that,” Brewer said. “But I would say Maine may be less susceptible than other states. The old Tip O’Neill adage that all politics is local still does hold.”
If voters do hand control of both houses to Republicans, it would be the first time in 36 years, according to state records. After the 1972 elections, Republicans held the majority of both houses in 1973 and 1974. Democrats took control of the House again in the November 1974 elections.
But it hasn’t been that long since Republicans had a taste of such control.
The 1994 elections produced a slim 18-16 Republican majority in the Maine Senate and a 75-75 split in the House. The decision of one Democratic House member to switch parties briefly gave Republicans a majority in both houses in the fall of 1995.
Special elections that November to fill two vacancies restored the Democratic majority in the House.
Staff Writer John Richardson can be contacted at 791-6324 or at: jrichardson@pressherald.com
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