The H1N1 pandemic never lived up to the dire scenarios envisioned by public health officials and the media. It’s our good fortune that the impact of the virus was generally mild.
But because it was not particularly virulent, the government was left with 40 million doses of vaccine as the swine flu threat faded from public consciousness. This outdated vaccine, worth about $260 million, was destroyed in June, and the government estimated that another 30 million doses will expire this year. If so, more than 43 percent of the supply for the U.S. public will have gone to waste.
The financial cost of the worldwide campaign turned out to be entirely disproportionate to the threat. Critics in the public health community say that the influenza experts have now been proven wrong several times after predicting that the world was facing the possibility of millions of deaths from bird flu and swine flu.
Some have even suggested that flu specialists working for the World Health Organization may have had a financial incentive in promoting a dire scenario. Investigative journalists writing in the British Medical Journal noted undisclosed business ties between key scientific advisors and drug companies that profited from the pandemic fears. After the World Health Organization declared the pandemic on June 11, 2009, many European countries and the U.S. aggressively sought out H1N1 vaccine, and eventually vast amounts were stockpiled. Drug industry profits on H1N1 drugs and vaccines amounted to $7-$10 billion, the British Medical Journal reported.
However, none of the criticism can discount the likelihood that the world will one day face a serious influenza pandemic. One year ago, the belief was that there was an imminent danger that H1N1 might become a deadly strain. It did, in fact, kill thousands of people: WHO has tallied more than 18,000 deaths worldwide. The organization also notes that it was more infectious, and more deadly, among the young.
Mobilizing against the virus was good preparation for a real public health emergency. Last year’s experience prepared health officials and the medical community, as well as government, schools and businesses, for a real epidemic. In Maine and elsewhere, there were successful collaborative efforts at schools and elsewhere to vaccinate those at risk.
Faced with predictions of a severe outbreak, public health officials are obligated to warn the public and prepare for the worst. The costs of a false alarm are far less than those of being unprepared for a real emergency.
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