Are we going to see $4 for a gallon of gasoline this summer? Some experts say yes. Will it level out there? Nobody knows. There are, however, several aspects of the problem that are crystal clear.
Demand is exceeding supply. Turmoil in the world creates a fear factor and stimulates increases in gasoline prices. Increased oil production in most countries will not happen. There seems to be two courses of action available to each of us: cut back use (conserve) and seek alternatives to oil.
Americans find conservation an unpleasant option. We relish our freedom to use energy with abandonment, to not be constrained by energy limitations. Of course, in the history of the human race this is a luxury that has only been available in the past 50 or so years and, with few exceptions, only in America.
Let’s face it, we have been spoiled by our abundance. Our lifestyle has adjusted upward to take advantage of this luxury. Cheap energy has allowed us to live where we want to, move about the country without constraints and play unconcerned with energy use. We heat our homes to our individual comfort level, food is shipped from around the world for our tables. Energy costs have been of little concern. It is possible that the bubble is about to burst.
Is there a silver bullet? Probably not, but there may be silver grape shot – multiple energy sources to add up to replace dwindling oil. But throw into this complex problem the prospects of global warming. You can believe it or not, but the world is in a warming trend (this winter notwithstanding). How much of it is caused by humans is debatable.
Not debatable is the fact that oil, coal, wood and even natural gas are polluting our air, soil and water. We have made great strides in the past 30 years to ameliorate this pollution, but with an ever-increasing use of fossil fuels we continue to pollute. Respiratory illnesses are on the rise, our streams and lakes are contaminated with mercury, dead zones are growing in the oceans. The list goes on.
Confronted with this double-edged problem, are we facing an insurmountable climb or ready for a mid-course correction? It is my view that the problem is a few short years away from being a crisis. This crisis could change all of our lives forever.
There is, however, a solution, a multi-faceted one that can answer both the oil shortage and the pollution problem and just may slow global warming. To get there it will take a grand plan. It will take a plan that will require huge resources and dogged determination. A plan is needed that will require the determination of the people and of our leadership. It is doable, but not without a gargantuan effort.
We are currently sending $500 billion overseas every year just to buy oil. This is 66 percent of our current consumption and growing each year. This does not include the money spent on protecting the oil resources and maintaining stability (or maybe not) in the Middle East.
Where would this money go? Because there are so many options there will be a great debate. Fortunes will be made other fortunes will be lost. Here is my laundry list.
1. Conservation – Increase gas mileage requirements to at least 45 miles per gallon (currently done in Japan); reduce speed limits to 60 mph; shut down inefficient, coal-fired power plants; make all energy-using devices meet Energy Star standards; improve public transportation; provide carrot rewards for efficiency and stick awards for inefficiencies; encourage local farmers markets,;encourage car pooling, walking and bicycling. It should be un-American to waste energy.
2. Increase dramatically research spending in all facets of energy efficiencies and production.
3. Build wind generators anywhere and everywhere that make sense.
4. Put solar hot water collectors on every home where it is economically viable.
5. Use photo-voltaic electricity everywhere that makes sense.
6. Build out low head hydroelectric where feasible.
7. Develop geothermal energy.
8. Develop ocean tide and wave energy.
9. Make bio-fuel using algae.
10. Develop cellulosic bio-fuel using waste forest materials and non-edible plants such as switch grass.
11. Eliminate Middle East oil immediately and work feverishly to wean the country from all foreign oil.
The above efforts will cause the price of oil to plummet. Some studies show that the real cost of oil is $45 a barrel. This price reduction will make sticking to this course of action very difficult, but we must stay the course. If we don’t, we will give the oil producers again the weapon to control us.
It is my view that the money saved by not buying foreign oil and protecting the oil pipelines (Middle East involvement) would be equal to the task. Better yet, this money would stay at home, enriching Americans, not foreign despots. The environment will be better for it and we will be spending less money on health care and pollution abatement.
This is a win-win solution but will not be easy to implement, human nature being what it is. The technology is here now it requires only the will to get the job done.
Jack Bash is a resident of Cornish and the executive director of the Hydrogen Energy Center in Maine. He has recently retired from the Graduate School of Oceanography at the University of Rhode Island, where he served as Marine Superintendent and Science Officer. He can be reached at bash@hydrogenenergycenter.org.
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